[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271236
SWODY1
SPC AC 271234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE CRP 65 NW LRD
...CONT... 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF 25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25
SE BGD 40 NW GAG DDC RSL CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT 30
SSW SHV 45 WNW POE 55 SSE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35
ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
SERIES OF TROUGHS CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS.  WHILE ONE IMPULSE MOVES EWD THRU WRN GREAT
LAKES THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM IS NOW ONSHORE WRN U.S. THIS TROUGH
WILL INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES EWD EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS BY LATER TONIGHT.

LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS 
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH FROM THE WEST. BY 12Z SAT SURFACE LOW WILL
BE LOCATED WRN KS WITH MID LEVEL COOLING AND DPVA SPREADING EWD
ACROSS KS/OK AND NWRN TX.

SLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO 30-40KT
SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.  THIS WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TX AND OK WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING THRU THE 50S IN TX AND INTO LOW 50S WRN OK TONIGHT.


ALSO THE SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE ERN PAC ACROSS NRN MEXICO IS
SPREADING CONSIDERABLE MID/UPR LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY
INTO TX AS NOTED BY THE LIGHTNING STRIKES BOTH TX BIG BEND AND
ACROSS SRN BAJA CA.

INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS 
FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN BY THEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS.

LIMITED INSOLATION WITH THE EXPECTED EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDINESS...ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVELS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WRN TX SHOULD BE ELEVATED.
 UPDRAFT STRENGTH WILL ALSO BE LIMITED BY MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS
THAN 500 J/KG.

STRONGER PRIMARILY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
FROM NWRN TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SERN KS AS TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
COOLING SHIFTS EWD INTO PLAINS.  WITH MLCAPES REMAINING AOB 500 J/KG
EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED ELEVATED HAIL
EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..HALES.. 01/27/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM