[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271625
SWODY1
SPC AC 271623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 WSW MRF 35 NNW MRF
25 SSE INK 25 NNW MAF 20 WSW LBB 25 SE BGD 25 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 15
WNW MCK 25 SW HSI STJ 40 SE CDJ 10 N TBN 15 SW HRO 15 ESE DEQ 15 SW
GGG 30 ESE UTS 30 E GLS ...CONT... 80 SE CRP 30 ENE CRP 20 WNW NIR
15 SSE COT 45 W LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35
ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG NW FLOW OVER CA THIS MORNING...AND W.V. SATELLITE DATA
...SUGGEST THAT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER KLAS IS A BIT STRONGER
THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT CONTINUES
ESE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE SRN HI PLNS BY 12Z SATURDAY... 
WHERE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM WILL ENHANCE SLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPR LVL
FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES.  THIS SHOULD HELP MOISTEN THE MID/ UPR
LEVELS AS SUBTROPICAL STREAM NOW OVER NW MEXICO BUCKLES NE ACROSS
THE SRN PLNS.

..SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
LEE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT OVER THE CNTRL HI
PLNS WITH APPROACH OF NEVADA UPR TROUGH.  THIS WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS.  NEAR-SURFACE TRAJECTORIES
WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN OUT OF GULF CST/SERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE.
STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BOTH
SUGGEST THAT THIS AIR MASS IS STILL PARTIALLY MODIFIED POLAR IN
CHARACTER.  THUS...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN
PLNS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DEVELOPING LLJ WILL NEVERTHELESS ADVECT
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR ACROSS W CNTRL TX INTO MUCH OF OK INTO KS. 
AMPLIFICATION OF WRN TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE AXIS TO DEVELOP A
BIT FARTHER W COMPARED TO SIMILAR RECENT SYSTEMS.  COMBINATION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR TROUGH...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW SHOULD
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM CNTRL TX
NNE INTO MUCH OF OK/KS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

DEGREE OF CLOUD LAYER INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED
/AOB 750 J PER KG/.  THIS MAY...HOWEVER...PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL.  A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS
MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER WRN KS...IN EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING TROUGH.  FARTHER S...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO FORM
IN SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL
JET IN SRN/S CNTRL TX...ALTHOUGH WARMER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY
LESSEN CHANCE FOR HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 01/27/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM