[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 270536
SWODY1
SPC AC 270534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU JAN 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SE CRP 45 WNW LRD
...CONT... 65 W MRF 10 SW MRF FST MAF 20 WSW LBB AMA 40 W GAG DDC
HLC CNK 10 SE STJ 40 N COU 30 N FAM POF HOT GGG 10 SE LFK 55 SSE
BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BLI SEA EUG 35
ENE 4BK 30 WSW CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG POLAR JET EXTENDS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
PACIFIC THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE A
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  SERIES OF
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...
INCLUDING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MIGRATING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES.  MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL SPLIT AS IT CONTINUES INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY TODAY.  STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
IS PROGGED INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY EARLY THIS EVENING... AS AN
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM LIFTS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.  THESE FEATURES MAY COME IN PHASE AS THEY
BEGIN TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN...MODELS SUGGEST
INITIATION OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  UNTIL THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF
COASTAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND
INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE TONIGHT TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER/MID 50S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  RELATIVELY WARM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL CAP
MOIST LAYER...BUT ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TO SUPPORT WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG IN NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG WEAK DRY
LINE...ROUGHLY FROM THE SAN ANGELO THROUGH CHILDRESS AREA...WHERE
SHEAR PROFILES ALONG 30+ KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  FORCING TO WEAKEN INHIBITION IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT AS SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE DRY LINE
BY THE 27/21-23Z TIME FRAME...THERE APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE DARK.

NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOSTLY ABOVE COOL/
STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER.  MID-LEVEL FORCING/COOLING WITH APPROACH
OF POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STEEPEN LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS THE 28/03-06Z TIME...BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORABLE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHICH PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
AFTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES TODAY IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...FORCING/DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS
UPSTREAM SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN BY 12Z SATURDAY.

..KERR.. 01/27/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM