[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260012
SWODY1
SPC AC 260010

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW DUG 60 NW SAD
45 SE PRC 50 ENE IGM 55 S SGU 15 NNE SGU 50 SSE U24 U28 MTJ 45 NNE
DRO 4SL 50 NW TCS 55 SSE DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS...
MUCH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
IS ELEVATED ABOVE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER... 
SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE LOWER DESERTS.  HOWEVER...
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING/DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS
PROVIDING FORCING AND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER COLORADO THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...AND
UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  THIS WILL
MAINTAIN NORTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. 

WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING HOW LONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST.  AS STRONGER
MID/UPPER FORCING PROGRESSES DEEPER INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT BASIN...MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  NOCTURNAL
COOLING SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL ALSO INCREASE IN INFLUENCE
...AND IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 26/06Z...PERHAPS
AS EARLY AS 02-03Z.

...LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
IN WAKE OF AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...BROAD SURFACE RIDGE HAS
STABILIZED MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THUS...DESPITE FORECAST DEEPENING 
OF SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...LACK
OF RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 01/26/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM