[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 252002
SWODY1
SPC AC 252001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S FHU PHX PRC IGM
30 NNW EED 35 S LAS LAS SGU BCE 30 ESE 4HV MTJ 40 NE ALS 45 WSW RTN
40 NNW ALM ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER CONUS FEATURES TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS GREAT
PLAINS...AND TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST THAT WILL MOVE
INLAND NRN CA...ORE AND WA THROUGH END OF PERIOD.  MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN SRN STREAM -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD TO
4-CORNERS REGION BY 26/12Z.  AT SFC...STRONG RIDGING IN AIR MASS OF
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN WILL REMAIN OVER WRN GULF...PRECLUDING
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING E OF ROCKIES.

...SWRN CONUS...
WRN EDGE OF TSTM THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD IN CONCURRENCE
WITH POSITION OF ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT. GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN CONCENTRATED IN BROAD WAA CONVEYOR WHICH WILL ARC FROM
DISTANT SERN QUADRANT OF CYCLONE NWD AND NWWD TOWARD NERN PORTION OF
COLD CORE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THIS
CORRIDOR...AS SAMPLED BY LATEST PW PROFILES DERIVED VIA GPS...WHICH
INDICATE AROUND .75 INCH OVER SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND MORE THAN DOUBLING
OF PW TO NEARLY .5 INCH OVER NWRN NM DURING PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS
MOISTENING -- ALONG WITH WEAK STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM DIURNAL/DIABATIC AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT CONTRIBUTORS -- WILL
SUPPORT MUCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN
EPISODIC/CLUSTERED THUNDER ALREADY OBSERVED TODAY IN THIS CORRIDOR. 
TSTMS COVERAGE GENERALLY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER DARK AS PARENT TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SFC HEATING IS LOST.

FARTHER SE INVOF RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES MIGHT OCCUR BY END OF PERIOD.  SUBTROPICAL STREAM
PERTURBATION NOW AIDING TSTM FORMATION OVER W-CENTRAL MEX HIGHLANDS
-- IN CONJUNCTION WITH INFLUX OF LOW-MIDLEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE --
WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL MEX OVERNIGHT. ZONE OF
STRONGEST ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 100 J/KG AS
FAR NE AS TX/MEX BORDERLANDS.  HOWEVER...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL GULF
MOISTURE AND STABILITY IN LOW LEVELS PRECLUDES GEN TSTM OUTLOOK
ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM