[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 260510
SWODY1
SPC AC 260508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BLI 30 N SEA
10 WNW PDX 45 SE OTH 30 W CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST...MODELS SUGGEST SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMBEDDED
WITHIN SPLIT BELTS OF POLAR WESTERLIES AND SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
...WILL SUPPORT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY.  A SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW IS
ALREADY LIFTING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO
INLAND PROGRESSION OF INITIAL NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES.  FORMER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
WEAKEN...AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...AS LATTER
FEATURE PROGRESSES INTO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. 
THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES
BY THIS EVENING.

IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN...CENTER OF BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS.  THUS...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY/MOISTEN DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...EVEN IN PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK DIGGING UPSTREAM
OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS.  HOWEVER...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
INLAND THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...INCREASING ONSHORE
COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS MAY SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.


...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON.  IF 26/00Z GFS COMES CLOSER TO VERIFYING THAN THE
NAM...LAPSE RATES/FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN
NEBRASKA COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  EVEN IF THIS
OCCURS...THOUGH...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/HIGH-BASED AND LIMITED
ROUGHLY TO THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...PROBABILITY
OF OCCURRENCE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO SMALL TO
OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 01/26/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM