[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221958
SWODY1
SPC AC 221957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
LCH 15 E LCH 40 S ESF 20 WSW HEZ 20 NNE MCB 20 NE ASD 55 SE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 35
E JCT 40 NW SEP 30 W ADM 30 E RKR 25 ESE FLP 20 NNW BWG 35 NNE CRW
25 ENE SSU 35 SW GSO 20 SW GSP 10 WSW AUO 45 SSW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN/SERN LA INTO PARTS
OF FAR SRN MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE 
EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN KY WSWWD TO NRN MS AND THEN SSWWD THROUGH
CENTRAL MS TO SWRN LA AND THE UPPER TX COASTAL AREA TO A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED EAST OF PSX.  IN ADDITION...A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDED
FROM THE NWRN GULF /S OF LA/ NWD TO SOUTH CENTRAL LA/SWRN MS WHERE
IT INTERSECTED THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH HAD STARTED
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVED ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED TROUGHS WITHIN SWLY
FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEWD FROM ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY.

...SRN LA/PARTS OF SRN MS...
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN FURTHER
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG
EXPECTED ACROSS SERN LA TO FAR SRN MS. MODIFIED RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG
THE CONFLUENT ZONE AND/OR AHEAD OF THE PSX SURFACE LOW/ATTENDANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.  THUS...
HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES/ADDED A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
SRN/SERN LA INTO FAR SRN MS.

MODIFIED AREA VAD DATA WITH CURRENT SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH VALUES TO AROUND 300 M2/S2 TO
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO A THREAT FOR WINDS
AND/OR HAIL.

WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NERN MS/NWRN AL AND ALSO
WWD ACROSS ERN TX SUGGESTS THESE REGIONS WILL HAVE A SMALLER
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 01/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM