[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 230517
SWODY1
SPC AC 230515

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SW HUM 40 WNW JAN
15 SSW TUP 35 SSW CSV 20 NE HSS 25 NNW DAN 60 SSE WAL ...CONT... 45
ENE SGJ 60 SSW CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY A REX-TYPE BLOCK INTO THE W AND THE
INTENSIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SERN STATES.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL SHIFT EWD TO
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE NRN
FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO CAROLINAS...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING INITIALLY FROM THE ERN TN VALLEY INTO MS/AL WITHIN REGION OF
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE TN VALLEY.  INFLUX OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

FARTHER TO THE E IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...INCREASINGLY SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EFFECTIVE ERODE PIEDMONT FRONT WITH AIR MASS
DESTABILIZING FROM ERN GA NWD INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS.  LATEST
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND
ACROSS THIS COASTAL AREA WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MUCAPES OF 500-800 J/KG.  FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. 
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 01/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM