[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 221609
SWODY1
SPC AC 221608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S PSX 30 S SAT 30
NE JCT ABI 25 NNE SPS 35 ESE FSM 20 N BWG 10 NNE HTS 20 W SSU 40 SSE
PSK 30 W CLT 10 WSW CSG 45 SSW PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY.  SEVERAL
WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSES ARE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM TX
INTO THE TN VALLEY.  THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ALONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EAST TX INTO TN.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MAINTAINING LIFT AND AIDING RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY SHOW
ONLY WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST STORMS.  GREATEST THREAT
OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL THIS EVENING.  EVEN
HERE...WEAK INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A CATEGORICAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AT THIS TIME.

..HART.. 01/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM