[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBF 35 W HOT 10
SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 25 SSW TOP 15 NNW FNB 20 SE DBQ 40 SSW JXN
25 E FDY 10 SSW CMH 55 ESE LUK LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 20 N PBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB
15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING SW KS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AS ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES ESEWD FROM THE PAC NW TO THE CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES.  A SURFACE
CYCLONE IN NW OK THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE
EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE...AND ALONG A L0W-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS CENTRAL MO/IL BY THIS EVENING...REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES EARLY SATURDAY.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NWD IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E
TX/OK/AR/LA...WHERE A PREVIOUS CONTINENTAL AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED TO
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE TX COAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO BE LIMITED TO THE LOWER-MID 50S ACROSS
THE OZARK PLATEAU WHERE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
STRONGEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/MID LEVEL WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR /MUCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 250 J/KG/...WITH SOME
L0W-TOPPED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM THE WRN MO AREA ENEWD ALONG THE
PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW.  40-50 KT L0W-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION BASED NEAR THE GROUND...THOUGH THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AT BEST.

FARTHER N...STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
COULD SUPPORT SNOW BANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NE
KS ACROSS NRN MO/SRN IA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON.. 01/20/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM