[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 201624
SWODY1
SPC AC 201622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF 35 W HOT
10 SSW RKR 30 S GMJ 20 S CNU 10 NE TOP 35 SE SDA 20 SE DBQ 40 NNE
FWA 25 S FDY 45 SW CMH 50 ENE LEX 50 SSW LEX 30 N BNA 20 SSW MKL 15
NNE PBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB
15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
COLD UPPER TROUGH NOW EXITING CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL ACCELERATE AND DE
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES TO OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY NERN OK ALSO MOVES RAPIDLY ENEWD AND PROGGED TO BE
INTO WRN NY BY 12Z SAT. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO
SWRN TEXAS SWEEPS SEWD TO EXTEND FROM OH RIVER VALLEY TO TX COAST BY
LATE TONIGHT.

MODEST MOISTURE RETURN UNDERWAY FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD TO OZARK
PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  WARM SECTOR INITIALLY
STRONGLY CAPPED THUS ONLY ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING NRN MO WHERE STRONG WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY TO N
OF FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OK LOW ENEWD TO SRN IL.

BY THIS AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT HEATING ALONG WITH THE LARGE SCALE
VERTICAL MOTION AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ENEWD TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OZARK PLATEAU.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER WITH MLCAPES NO HIGHER THAN
100-200 J/KG. STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS THAT THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS STORM MOTION
EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40KT.  HOWEVER UPDRAFT INTENSITY WILL BE
WEAK LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO JUST WIND GUSTS.

WHAT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER OZARK PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE A LIMITED WIND THREAT EWD ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO BECOMING ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE INTO
AREA OF EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY.

..HALES.. 01/20/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM