[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 200540
SWODY1
SPC AC 200538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PBF 40 NNW ELD
30 NW DEQ 25 S TUL 40 NNW BVO TOP 30 WNW CDJ MMO 10 NNE TOL 10 WNW
CLE 35 W HLG 30 SSE UNI LEX 30 WNW BWG 15 ESE DYR 10 NE PBF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S 7R4 25 ESE MCB
15 SSE MEI 20 WSW SEM 30 N CEW 50 S PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CNTRL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS KS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM.  STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY ACROSS MO/NRN
AR INTO OH/LOWER MI WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM.../ENHANCED INSTABILITY NORTH OF
THE JET AXIS.

20/00Z NAM MODEL IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM SERN TX INTO AR.  ALTHOUGH FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ALLOW LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN
AHEAD OF FRONT INTO SRN MO WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RISE
INTO THE 50S BY PEAK HEATING.  LATEST THINKING IS A NARROW AXIS OF
SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
THE PROSPECT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF JET AXIS WHERE STRONG LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL BE NOTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN MO IN PARTICULAR
INDICATE NEAR SFC-BASED UPDRAFTS WILL EVOLVE WITHIN A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH MUCAPES WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN
500J/KG.  A FEW TSTMS OR DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD GENERATE
STRONG WINDS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF WEAK SFC LOW/COLD FRONT.  

FARTHER SOUTH INTO ERN TX/LA...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SIGNIFICANT INHIBITION WILL SUPPRESS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...LATE IN THE PERIOD PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW/MOISTENING MAY
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION.

..DARROW.. 01/20/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM