[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180610
SWODY1
SPC AC 180608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 10 NE ECG
20 ENE NHK 10 SW ABE 30 NE MSV 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST
55 SW PDT 45 SSE SMN COD 30 S 81V 25 SSE CYS 25 SSW GUC 35 E MLF 45
WSW U31 35 W ACV.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD...MOVING OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...A BROADER/LESS-AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH -- IS
FORECAST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION AND THEN OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY MID
MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

...MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND EARLY IN THE PERIOD. 
THEREFORE...THOUGH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR...SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES OFFSHORE BY
MIDDAY.

...PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN
LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 01/18/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM