[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180112
SWODY1
SPC AC 180110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CHS 35 WSW SOP
20 ESE LYH 15 NNE BWI 35 SSE JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CTY 10 WSW VLD
35 WNW AYS 25 SE OCF 40 SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE
AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS INDICATED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
STATES...WITHIN VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH.  AS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD WITH TIME...AND TAKES ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY ALOFT --
SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER.

DESPITE THIS...INSTABILITY IS FOR THE MOST PART NONEXISTENT ACROSS
THE ERN CONUS ATTM -- BASED ON EVENING RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND CONFIRMED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING WITHIN ONGOING
PRECIPITATION.

WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INDICATED OFF THE SC COAST...NWWD ADVECTION
OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY ALLOW A VERY MINIMAL
AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION -- PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW DEEPER
CONVECTIVE CELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.  GIVEN
STRENGTH OF WINDS/SHEAR...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE -- EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF CG
LIGHTNING -- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/18/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM