[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 181251
SWODY1
SPC AC 181250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE ACY 30 ENE ABE
35 SW ALB 25 SE RUT 10 W PWM 50 SE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW UIL 25 E AST
25 SW RDM 30 SE BNO 10 S IDA 50 SSW BPI 55 N PUC 25 ENE U24 40 SSE
P68 45 WNW TVL 70 WSW UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE LWR 48 AS DEEP
ERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH COMPLEX NOW APPROACHING THE
ORE/NRN CA CST.

...ERN U.S...
LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY
WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER ALONG
LONG-LIVED PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW CROSSING NJ. FRONTAL-
TYPE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF/
INTERMITTENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF INTENSE /80+ KT/ LLJ OVER THE LWR
HUDSON VLY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ELEVATED
TERRAIN.  BUT POTENTIAL FOR TRUE SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE LIMITED.

FARTHER W...SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT AND TIGHTENING OF MID LEVEL
FRONTAL ZONE AS UPPER TROUGH ASSUMES MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT MAY
PROMOTE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT UNTIL THAT
FEATURE CLEARS THE SRN NEW ENG CST LATE IN THE DAY.

...ORE/NRN CA TO NRN GRT BASIN...
VERY COOL /BELOW MINUS 30 C AT 500 MB/ AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY UPR
VORT NOW JUST OFF THE SW ORE CST AS THAT FEATURE CONTINUES ESE INTO
SRN ORE/NRN CA LATER TODAY.  SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SUGGEST PRESENCE
OF A SECONDARY IMPULSE MERGING WITH THE LEAD ONE INVOF 40N/128W. 
RESULTING FAST/DEEP ONSHORE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE ORE CASCADES/CSTL RANGES SWD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR E OF
THE SIERRA IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SPOTS OVER SE ORE...SRN ID...
NRN NV AND NRN UT LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 01/18/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM