[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171946
SWODY1
SPC AC 171944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI OGB 10 SSE
LYH 35 W CXY 30 SSW AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50 SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 SSE PNS 30 SW DHN
15 NNE CSG 25 WNW MCN 35 SE MCN 25 SE OCF 70 WSW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 WNW BLI 35 ENE
AST 40 E CEC 70 W UKI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN STATES THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...

A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH NO DETECTABLE LIGHTNING FROM CNTRL GA SWWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF GA AND NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAS ADVECTED INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA WITH 50S FARTHER NE. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT TONIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY TAKES ON A MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AND BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. SOME OF THIS HIGHER MOMENTUM
AIR COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM SRN GA INTO PARTS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA...

NRN PORTION OF THE LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WRN CAROLINAS HAS
DIMINISHED OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RESULTING LACK OF
INSTABILITY. SOME INCREASE MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STREAM
IS ADVECTED INLAND ALONG INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET. QUALITY OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 300 J/KG.
POCKETS OF HIGHER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING 80+ KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE BANDS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM