[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171630
SWODY1
SPC AC 171628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
PNS GZH 10 SSE TOI 20 WNW ABY 15 SW MGR 55 ESE AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CHS 40 ENE CAE
30 SSW GSO LYH 25 SW MRB 35 W CXY 20 S AVP 20 WSW POU 10 NNW BDR 50
SE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PNS 15 NNW GZH
25 NNW AUO 20 SE LGC 45 ESE VLD 25 SE OCF 45 SSW SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW CLM 35 ENE AST
40 E CEC 75 WNW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN AL...SWRN GA...FL
PANHANDLE...

...AL COAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE...
AIR MASS HAS NOT ADEQUATELY DESTABILIZED ATTM AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN AL.  LIGHTNING DETECTION
NETWORK HAS YET TO SAMPLE A CG-STRIKE IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. 
HOWEVER...VERY STRONG WEDGE OF ASCENT IS MAINTAINING A
NARROW...FORCED-SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER REFLECTIVITY
CORES INTO SRN AL.  VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE COINCIDENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RACES EWD AT NEAR 40
KT.  THUS...DOWNDRAFTS WITHIN THIS ORGANIZED LINE OF MOIST
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE/MIX-DOWN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AT LEAST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS INTO SERN AL...SWRN GA AND MUCH OF THE FL
PANHANDLE.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT ALSO OCCUR...THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUSTAIN SHALLOW STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. 
OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL NORTH OF THIS REGION GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND EWD INTO MORE OF FL LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS
STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM LIFT NWD.

...COASTAL NC INTO THE DELMARVA...
VERY STRONG ASCENT AND EXTREME WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD A MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER AND JUST OFF THE NC COAST IS NOT AS MOIST AS WITH THE SYSTEM
LATE LAST WEEK.  IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION
FAIL TO PRODUCE MUCH INSTABILITY.  ANY MUCAPE PRODUCED IS ELEVATED
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF FORCING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE /80+ KT SLY LLJ/...A NARROW LINE OF MOIST CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE.

..EVANS.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM