[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 171257
SWODY1
SPC AC 171256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
HUM 10 SSE GPT 10 WSW 0A8 20 NE BHM 30 SSW RMG 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY
45 SSW VLD 50 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE BPT 50 NE JAN
10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE
MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BLI 15 ENE SEA
35 ENE AST 10 NNE SLE 20 SSW RDM 50 NNW LKV 40 SSE LMT 40 WSW EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN GULF CST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE TODAY
AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE MS VLY.  IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE
AND ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO
THE ROCKIES.  COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY ACCELERATE
SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES GA AND THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE FEATURE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN ANA IN NATURE AS UPPER FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE
EJECTING UPPER SYSTEM.

IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HEIGHTS SHOULD FALL AND THE DEEP FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE CYCLONIC TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER VORTS
NOW NEAR 41N/135W AND 44N/143W REACH THE COAST.

...ERN GULF COAST...
EXPECT THAT WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY IN ZONE OF CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION.  GULF OF
MEXICO BUOY DATA AND STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH
SUGGEST...HOWEVER...THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH
MAXIMUM SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED OVER SRN MS/SRN
AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  RECOVERY MAY EVEN BE MORE LIMITED IN GA/N
FL...WHERE OVERLAND INFLOW WILL PREVAIL.

MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ERN GULF REGION.  BUT AS
AREA VWP DATA SHOW /0-1 KM SRH CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 400 MS/S2 AT
KMOB/...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR LOW
LEVEL STORM ROTATION SHOULD DEEP/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. 
THUS...LOW CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
DEPICTED FOR THE REGION.

FARTHER W...WEAK INSTABILITY AND ANA NATURE OF FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP
SEVERE THREAT LIMITED WITH NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG
COLD FRONT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF 80+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR. 
NEVERTHELESS...ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELD INVOF OF
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY YIELD DAMAGING...LIKELY NON-THUNDER...WIND GUSTS
AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

...ERN CAROLINAS/SE VA...
SOME INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
TIDEWATER VA...WHERE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
SIMILARLY OCCUR...THIS TIME OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC.  AS OVER THE ERN
GULF COAST...KINEMATIC FIELD LIKELY WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE TO BOTH
LOW AND MID LEVEL STORM ROTATION AS MID LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
TO AOA 90 KTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT STRONG POLAR INTRUSION...AND
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS...LIKELIHOOD
FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY
APPEARS REMOTE.

..CORFIDI.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM