[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170611
SWODY1
SPC AC 170610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW
HUM 15 SW MSY 30 SW TCL 20 NE BHM 25 ESE ANB 10 ENE LGC 10 W ABY 40
SSW VLD 45 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 15 SE GWO
10 S BWG 35 NW HTS 15 W BLF 40 SE PSK 40 WSW DCA 10 NNE CXY 25 NNE
MSV 20 SSW BDL 45 ESE ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM
30 E AST 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR 40 WSW EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
VERY STRONG/FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME WHILE TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT --
INITIALLY FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS...AS DEEPENING LOW MOVES NWD FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO SRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. 
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF
THE COUNTRY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BOTH INVOF FRONT AND WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY NWD TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION RESULTING IN GENERALLY
MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL HEATING...UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. 
THUS...EXPECT ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WHERE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE NEAR 250 J/KG MAY
EXIST. 

THEREFORE...DESPITE STRONG UPPER TROUGH...SHARP COLD FRONT...AND
VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A SMALL SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHERE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN LINE OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE GULF COAST...EITHER
WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL WITHIN STRONG WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT.

THREAT WILL SHIFT EWD WITH TIME -- ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE...BUT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS FRONT
APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
EXTREME LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
AND TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.  ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY -- POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED -- MAY
DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION AS GULF STREAM MOISTURE ADVECTS NNWWD. 
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION
ATTM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING. 
SHOULD SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS SLIGHTLY GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WIND/TORNADO THREAT COULD
EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM