[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170053
SWODY1
SPC AC 170052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE
CRP ALI 25 SSE UTS 45 SE LFK 15 NNW LFT 25 NW MSY 45 ENE BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE BRO 45 ENE LRD
10 WNW UTS 20 NW PRX 15 NNW RKR 15 NW RUE 40 W MEM 25 N TUP 45 ENE
CBM 15 NNW 0A8 40 NE MOB 45 SSE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST
NEWD/EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
OZARKS/SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND FRONTAL FORCING FROM E TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. 
HOWEVER...WITH INSTABILITY CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE AND NWD EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SERN TX INTO LA/SRN MS...
MAIN SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST -- FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO SERN LA...WHERE DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND COOLING ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
ARE RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
CAPE/.

BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS INVOF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN/SERN TX FROM ROUGHLY CRP NEWD
TOWARD SHV.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS REMAINED GENERALLY WEAK THUS
FAR DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY.  NONETHELESS...STRONG/VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE -- SUPPORTIVE OR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS -- SUGGESTS THAT A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN AS STORMS
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/17/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM