[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161258
SWODY1
SPC AC 161257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE
CRP ALI 20 ESE SAT 25 ESE ACT 40 NW SHV 15 S LLQ 40 SW MEM 45 SSE
MKL 50 ENE CBM 20 SE MEI 60 SE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45
ESE 4CR 45 WSW LBB 35 S MAF 60 N DRT 55 WNW AUS 15 SSW FTW 40 W HOT
15 NNW POF 40 NW EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA
15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 45 SE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS
VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING AZ/NM SHOULD FURTHER AMPLIFY
THIS PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE ERN PLNS AND PHASES WITH NRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW DROPPING SE FROM ALBERTA.  AT LOWER LEVELS...
COLD FRONT NOW STRENGTHENING OVER NW OK/KS AND THE LWR MO VLY SHOULD
ACCELERATE SEWD TODAY...REACHING A STL/FSM/DAL LINE BY EARLY
EVENING.  THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRY LINE
IN TX...AND SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE INTO CNTRL KY/NW AL AND SE LA BY
12Z TUESDAY.

...E TX INTO LWR MS VLY...
SSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER E/SE TX AND THE WRN GULF TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...ENHANCING MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  BUT LATEST SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD
PATTERNS IN SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT QUALITY OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN RATHER MODEST...WITH AT BEST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS SPREADING NWD
INTO E TX/LA AND SRN MS/AL.

PRESENCE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LIKELY
WILL PROHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER TX AND LA UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.  PRIOR TO THAT TIME...EXPECT THAT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND DEPTH...AND EVENTUALLY YIELD THUNDER AS LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  THE WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE BAND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY SURFACE-BASED AS HEIGHT
FALLS AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW FURTHER DESTABILIZE
REGION.

WITH 500 MB SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO AOA 80 KTS...AMPLE
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW...EXPECTED CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF FORCING /FRONT AND
TROUGH/...MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED
LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS/BOWS.

WHILE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MODEST AND SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY BE
SLOW TO EVOLVE OUT OF MORE BENIGN ACTIVITY...STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.  FARTHER E...LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE MAY PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND.

EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD ALLOW SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...TO REACH SE LA...SRN/ CNTRL MS AND
PERHAPS WRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY. A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE
WILL EXTEND N INTO TN.

..CORFIDI.. 01/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM