[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 160604
SWODY1
SPC AC 160602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE
BRO 25 S CRP 25 S BAZ 35 ESE SEP 35 SSE BVX 20 SSE DYR 40 ESE TUP 10
NNW MEI 60 SE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 30 E TCS 45
ESE 4CR 40 WSW LBB 60 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 15 NNW POF 40 NW
EVV 30 NNW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 10 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW
SEM 45 SE PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX EWD INTO THE TN/LOWER
MS VALLEYS....

...SYNOPSIS...
FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND THEN
ACROSS THE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AND THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...AIRMASS OVER THE GULF
REMAINS ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED.  THEREFORE...QUALITY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS -- AND THUS DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THUS LIMITING
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.

...S CENTRAL CONUS...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS E TX BY
MID-AFTERNOON...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.
 DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
INSTABILITY...WITH AOB 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ANTICIPATED --
GREATEST OVER SERN TX.

DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL BE VERY STRONG...WHICH COMBINED WITH
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VEERING WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH STORM MODE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...
IT APPEARS ATTM THAT PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.  EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER SERN TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO SRN LA LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM ADVECTION MAY YIELD PRE-FRONTAL/CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  

ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS SERN TX AND SRN
LA WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION AND MOST
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST.  A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...INCREASINGLY MARGINAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT SUGGESTS NWD DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT.  MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE -- LIKELY CONTAINING TRANSIENT/SMALL-SCALE LEWPS AND
BOWS.  THIS THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR N AS THE TN VALLEY...AND SHOULD
SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 01/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM