[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161623
SWODY1
SPC AC 161621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
PSX 30 N VCT 40 ESE AUS 20 NW CLL 40 S TYR 25 SSE SHV 35 S JAN 20 E
ASD 50 SW BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S DMN 25 E TCS 50
NNW ROW 45 WSW LBB 45 S MAF 15 SSE 6R6.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 10 WSW HDO
40 W ACT 40 NNE PRX 15 S UNO 15 SW MVN 30 SW BMG 35 NNE SDF 20 E LEX
10 ENE LOZ 40 NNW HSV 25 NW TCL 35 W GZH 65 S MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY...

...TX ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS SUBSTANTIAL ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES.  THIS
WILL KEEP TROUGH AXIS POSITIVELY-TILTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT MORE NEWD TOWARDS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 
REGARDLESS...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH H5 WINDS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 90 KT BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.  GULF MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST WITH HIGHEST SURFACE DEW
POINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S JUST OFF THE CENTRAL TX COAST. 
ALSO...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING WITH 16-20C H85
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SRN/ERN TX.  WITH EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION NOW
OVERSPREADING ERN TX/NRN LA...HEATING WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
SUGGESTING STRONGER STORMS WILL AWAIT ENHANCED FORCING/COOLING
H85-H7 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TX LATER TODAY WHICH WILL
SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH...A LOW CENTER WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY OVER ERN TX
THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP ENEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS.

MUCAPE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO EXCEED 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN ALONG WRN AND
SWRN FRINGE OF CURRENT LOW LEVEL WAA PRECIPITATION SHIELD EVOLVING
OVER THE REGION.  GIVEN EXTREME SHEAR AND CO-LOCATION OF LOWER TO
MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
SOUTHEAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME SEVERE.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR WIND
DAMAGE EVENT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP ASCENT PLUME...WITH THREAT
SPREADING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS BROKEN
SQUALL LINE EVOLVES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWP STRUCTURES.

..EVANS.. 01/16/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM