[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140523
SWODY1
SPC AC 140521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HSE 20 ENE BWI
25 NNE ABE 20 S PSF 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM
40 SSE OTH 30 S MHS 60 S TVL 15 W NID 25 NE RAL 20 WSW CZZ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN SITUATED FROM COAST TO
COAST ACROSS THE CONUS. IN THE EAST...AN EXTENSIVE AND INTENSE
MERIDIONAL TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS TO NEW ENGLAND AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP LAYER SLY
FLOW ON THE ERN FLANK OF THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NWD IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL LIKELY DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NJ BY AFTERNOON AND THIS
LOW SHOULD TRACK RAPIDLY NEWD TO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EVENING. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED...TSTMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND GIVEN
INTENSE DYNAMICS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER EXTENSIVE
MERIDIONAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...NEARING 127W. STRONG IMPULSE
APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WEST OF THE CNTRL CA
COAST AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS LATER
TODAY. WHILE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INTENSIFYING OROGRAPHIC FORCING
 AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WEAK INSTABILITY AND MEAGER LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
ORGANIZED TSTM POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM