[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141235
SWODY1
SPC AC 141233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE HSE NEL 20 ENE
MSV 25 SSE RUT 50 NNE BGR 25 SE HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 40 NNW OLM
40 SE OTH 40 WNW RBL 55 NNE SAC 45 NNE NID 45 SE DAG 50 WNW SAN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT POWERFUL SRN
APPALACHIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND ASSUME A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW
REDEVELOPING OVER SE NY VERY SLOW MOVING AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY E
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.

IN THE WEST...SRN PART OF E PACIFIC TROUGH COMPLEX EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THE DOMINANT MEMBER AS IT CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN CA BY 12Z
SUNDAY.

...NEW ENG...
PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING S FROM THE LWR HUDSON VLY
MAY DECELERATE A BIT AS IT CONTINUES E ACROSS SRN NEW ENG AND LONG
ISLAND THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD STILL CLEAR THE MA CST BY
18Z.  DEEP/STRONG SSWLY WIND FIELD ORIENTED PARALLEL TO BAND WILL
CONTINUE TO FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS. WEAK LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW/50+ KT LLJ.  A FEW
SPOTS OF HIGH WIND MAY OCCUR BEFORE CONVECTIVE BAND CLEARS THE CST. 
BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

FARTHER N...MODEST LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER ME
LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO REGION.  BUT
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH AND ASSUMPTION OF NEGATIVE TILT
WILL KEEP AREA BENEATH LARGELY STRAIGHT UPPER FLOW AND/OR LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING.  THUS...DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
MINIMAL AND THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED.

...W CST...
STRONG IMPULSE NOW NEAR 36N/126W SHOULD MOVE INTO CNTRL CA THIS
AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION.  WHILE STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
SPOTS OF HAIL...RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES AND MODEST SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..CORFIDI.. 01/14/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM