[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140047
SWODY1
SPC AC 140045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
AAF 50 WSW VDI 45 N AGS 30 SSW HKY 45 NW GSO 30 NNE LYH 35 SSW DCA
30 SSW DOV 45 ENE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW AAF 15 S ABY
15 ENE MCN 15 SE AND 15 ESE HSS 45 SSE JKL 30 NW JKL 35 NNW SDF 25
ENE HUF LAF 40 WNW FWA 35 SSW JXN 10 ENE CLE FKL 30 SSE BFD 20 NE
AVP 10 NNE BAF 15 SW AUG 15 N EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL...THE SOUTHEAST...AND
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SOUTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC...
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH 100KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER MS/AL. ASSOCIATED SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO A CLT-CAE-TLH LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A NEARLY SOLID
LINE OF TSTMS EXISTS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS SC...WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FROM SERN GA AND CNTRL
SC ENEWD TO THE NC OUTER BANKS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC. MARGINAL /MOIST ADIABATIC/ LAPSE RATES WERE
CONTRIBUTING TO ONLY MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
MUCH OF SC AND NC FRONT...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOB 250 J/KG. GREATER
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG/ WAS BEING INDICATED IN OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS AND LATEST SOUNDING DATA FROM CHS SWWD TO NRN FL.

GIVEN STRONGLY FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND
INTENSE SHEAR EVIDENT IN WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE EVENTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SRN SC AND SERN GA WHERE STRONGER
INSTABILITY IS SITUATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

...FL...
DESPITE VEERED/WLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL FL...LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
INCREASE COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL INTRUSION ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
TONIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS INDICATING COOLING CLOUD
TOPS WITHIN BROKEN SQUALL LINE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
 FL. FURTHERMORE...RADAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE ALSO
OCCURRING WITHIN THIS BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FROM EVENING RAOBS...IN ADDITION TO SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...OR
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE...WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
WIND DAMAGE/HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

..CARBIN.. 01/14/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM