[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131953
SWODY1
SPC AC 131952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
PFN 40 WNW ABY 35 ENE CSG 35 SSW AHN AGS 25 SE SAV 35 SSW SGJ 40 WSW
PIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE
PNS 35 SSW CSG 35 E RMG PSK SHD HGR 25 NNW TTN 50 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MSS ALB 60 ENE
HYA ...CONT... 55 SSW PNS BHM BWG 30 WSW BMG VPZ GRR 65 NE BAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF CNTRL/SRN GA AND NRN FL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

....EASTERN STATES...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET
STREAK IS DEVELOPING/DIGGING UPSTREAM OF BASE OF HIGH AMPLITUDE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MUCH AS FORECAST BY MODELS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOUTHEASTWARD AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO TAKE ON AN
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT.

WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STILL IN THE PROCESS OF MODIFYING EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING STILL LAGGING TO THE
WEST OF SURFACE WARM SECTOR...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION FROM THE CAROLINAS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  HOWEVER...
DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD ADVECT INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH INCREASINGLY
STRONG AND DIFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND JUST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

FATHER NORTH...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY EVENING...
INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. 
THIS SUGGESTS CONTINUING LIKLIHOOD OF INLAND ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SEEMS PROBABLE.  A LARGE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE...BEFORE SPREADING OFF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
LATER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 40 TO 50 KT MEAN
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM