[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131622
SWODY1
SPC AC 131620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
MOB 35 ENE MOB 20 SSW MGM 15 SW LGC 15 NE MCN 15 SE VDI 35 SSE AYS
45 SW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
BVE 50 N MOB 30 NW ATL 10 NNE AND 30 SW GSO 30 ENE HGR 25 NNW TTN 35
SE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE VRB 40 W APF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW BVE 55 SSE MEI
30 NE MSL 20 SSE CKV 20 S MVN 20 E BMI 40 ESE SBN 25 ENE FDY 20 SSE
PKB EKN 15 SSW SYR 15 E GFL 20 WSW PSM 50 ENE HYA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN AL...SRN/CENTRAL
GA...NRN FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MOST OF THE SERN U.S. INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SRN AL/SRN GA/FL...
WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER CENTRAL AL NEAR INTERSECTION WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON.  A PAIR
OF WARM FRONTS IS EVIDENT AT 16Z...NRN MOST IS WEDGE FRONT OVER
UPLANDS OF SC/NC/NRN GA...WITH MARINE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN GA
INTO SERN AL.

CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER DISCRETE THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL SRM
COUPLETS EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS OVER SRN AL AND FAR WRN FL
PANHANDLE.  12Z SOUNDINGS WITHIN MODEST WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RECOVERY IS NEEDED INTO SRN GA AND
MUCH OF NRN FL.  HOWEVER...SIL/S SOUNDING INDICATED A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WHICH IS FEEDING CURRENT
ACTIVITY.  AS STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS TODAY...EXPECT
SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ENEWD INTO GA AND NRN FL WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S F.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATES STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
CURRENT BROKEN SQUALL LINE OVER MUCH OF FL PANHANDLE/NWRN FL INTO
CENTRAL GA.  THIS WILL LIKELY AID DEVELOPING PRIMARY WARM FRONT INTO
NRN/CENTRAL GA AND CENTRAL SC THIS AFTERNOON.  MODIFIED RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS EXPECTED WARM SECTOR YIELD SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2/S2.  THUS...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN INCREASED INTO FAR SRN
AL...SRN/CENTRAL GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WIND
DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM SERN GA SWWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS MUCH OF FL OVERNIGHT WHERE
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AND SERN PA/NJ...
LOW LEVEL WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY. 
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND SIMILAR DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS 50+ KT SLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN NC AND ERN
VA.  AS SHEAR INCREASES LATER TODAY...SEVERE THREAT  WILL ALSO
LIKELY INCREASE AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS NEAR THE NC/SC COAST. 
PRIMARY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF GA AND DEVELOP
EWD OFF THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STRONG/DEEP
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS IT SPREADS EWD OFF THE
COAST AND DEVELOPS NWD ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE LATE TONIGHT.

...OH RIVER VALLEY...
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW 
AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...NEAR 50 F
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM OVERALL THREAT
WARRANTS LOWERING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..EVANS.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM