[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131239
SWODY1
SPC AC 131237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
HUM 25 SE BTR 35 WSW MEI 35 SW 0A8 25 WSW TOI 10 NNE MGR 30 SSW SAV
15 ESE FLO 30 NW RWI 25 SW ORF 40 ENE HSE ...CONT... 40 ENE SGJ 15 E
GNV 40 SW PIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW
7R4 25 NW MCB 15 ENE CBM 40 SE BWG 40 WNW SDF 20 ESE IND 20 S DAY 15
WSW HTS 35 ENE TRI 10 ESE ROA 25 NE HGR 15 ENE ABE 45 ESE NEL
...CONT... 45 NNE PBI 35 SW APF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 20 ENE HEZ
MEM 45 SW EVV 40 ENE SLO 40 N DNV 25 NNE AZO 20 W MTC 20 NNW YNG 25
ESE BUF 20 NNE SYR 15 E GFL 25 NE ORH 35 SW ACK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
30 E 4BK 45 S RBL 20 NE SCK 45 E MRY 65 WSW PRB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE LA/SRN AL INTO NRN
FL/SRN GA...AND FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO THE DELMARVA REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE...PROFILER AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE LWR MS VLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY TODAY
AS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW OVER NE TX/NW LA CONTINUES E/SE INTO
THE NRN GULF AND UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE RCKYS. SURFACE LOW
NOW CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD DEEPEN AND MOVE E
ACROSS KY TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE REDEVELOPING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
INTO MD/SRN PA EARLY SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE E/SE ACROSS THE
GULF CST STATES/GA AND FL TODAY/TONIGHT...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE
FRONT LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN NC/VA AND MD LATER
IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

...ERN LA/MS INTO S GA/FL...
PROPAGATION OF ORIGINAL SQUALL LINE THAT FORMED LAST EVENING IN ERN
OK/AR HAS CARRIED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT E OF ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IN KY/MIDDLE TN...NW AL AND CNTRL MS.  NRN PART OF LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS LATER
THIS MORNING.  SRN PART OF SQUALL LINE...SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
STRONG AND MAY SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION SWD INTO THE GULF AS IT
ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS SE MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR MASS OVER NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA...AND
UPLAND SC...SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IN THOSE
AREAS AS CONVECTIVE BAND PASSES THROUGH.  FARTHER S...
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN EXIT REGION OF
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK...50-60 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF WARM FRONT
SEGMENT OVER THE NRN GULF /NEAR MOB/...SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  THESE STORMS MAY YIELD HIGH WIND...A COUPLE
TORNADOES AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE/SPREAD E ACROSS SRN
AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN/WRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

FARTHER S...MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL AND SRN
FL...WHERE MODERATE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE BENEATH
STRENGTHENING /40-50 KT/ WLY FLOW ALOFT.

...ERN CAROLINAS INTO VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ...
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY FLOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ERN SC/NC RAOBS AND SURFACE DATA
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SHOW PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER
THE REGION.  THIS AIR SHOULD BE DRAWN NWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND 50 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE
BOWS/TORNADOES LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

...OH VLY...
PRESENCE OF STRONG DPVA DOWNSTREAM FROM MAIN UPPER VORT NOW OVER
CNTRL AR...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/MOISTURE INFLOW...MAY INITIATE A SECONDARY AREA OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INVOF SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT IN IND/KY. 
EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED...AND
UPPER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK ALOFT.  THESE FACTORS MAY LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND REGION MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..CORFIDI.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM