[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130600
SWODY1
SPC AC 130558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
BVE 30 SSE PIB 20 N MEI 40 ENE CBM 50 NNE HSV 35 SE CSV 30 ENE AVL
10 SSE HKY 25 WSW SOP 40 NNE CHS 40 E SAV 15 SSE SSI 30 W SGJ 60 SSW
CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
MLB 55 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S LCH 10 SE HEZ 25 S UOX CKV 40 NNE SDF
20 SSW CMH 30 NNW UNI 15 SSE PKB SSU 25 SW LYH 55 ENE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE BLI 20 NE AST
25 NE 4BK 20 SSE UKI 15 SE SFO 20 W MRY 40 SW MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE GLS 25 NNW MLU
25 NNW MEM 30 SSW PAH SLO 10 ENE CMI 35 S SBN 10 SSW DTW 45 NE CLE
40 WNW IPT 15 NNE IPT 30 WNW MSV 35 WSW PSF 15 NNE BAF 10 ESE ORH 25
SE EWB 35 SW ACK.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
MISSISSIPPI...SRN/ERN TENNESSEE...MUCH OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NRN FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SCNTRL
CONUS AS A POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE...500MB WINDS OF 100-110KT...WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS INTENSIFYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SURGES
EAST FROM THE MS RIVER TO THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN RAPID EWD TRANSLATION
OF THE ENTIRE TROUGH SYSTEM...AND 12H 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF OVER
200M...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH...AND THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND INTO NRN FL LATER
THIS EVENING. INTENSE FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FROM TN NWD TO THE OH VALLEY...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET CORE... COUPLED WITH
LOWERING STATIC STABILITY...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THROUGH TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS DEVELOPING PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM UPPER OH
VALLEY TO NRN VA.

IN THE WEST...ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...AND LARGE SCALE LIFT SHOULD
INCREASE...AS THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.

...TN VALLEY/SOUTH...
STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS EVOLVED AS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS REGIONS AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY
EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK. GIVEN
INTENSE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS SPREADING EAST INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE...SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST
ACROSS TN/AL/GA...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... THROUGH AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED RETURN FLOW/MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
THE SQUALL LINE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY. DESPITE LOW
CAPE...STRONGLY FORCED SLAB ASCENT WITHIN MOIST ADIABATIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LINE SHOULD SUPPORT LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL
MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER /MAUL/. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
WITHIN THIS LAYER WILL LEAD TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE
SURFACE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED DERECHO PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN
THE LINE...OR ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
LINE...WILL BE LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH WRN SC BY EVENING AND MAY BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
SLIGHT DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH EWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...THIS MAY HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN
RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LINE AND STRONG FORCING.
THUS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING.

...OH VALLEY EAST TO MID ATLANTIC...
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. WHILE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWER THAN FARTHER SOUTH...SHEAR AND
FORCING APPEAR TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OH VALLEY...AND PERHAPS EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM