[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 130110
SWODY1
SPC AC 130109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
BPT CLL 15 N ACT 20 NW DAL 20 W FYV 20 E SGF 30 E VIH 10 SW BLV MVN
45 NE PAH 45 NNE MKL 30 SSE MKL 40 SE GWO 25 ESE HEZ 40 NNW LFT 30
NNW BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE PSX 30 SSE TPL
40 SSE SEP 40 NNW FTW 40 N JLN 25 NE COU 35 W SPI 25 NNE LAF 20 S
MIE 35 SSE SDF 15 S BNA 25 S MSL 45 ESE MEI 10 ENE MOB 70 SW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...ARKLATEX ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WERE
DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD
FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE FROM NERN OK SWWD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER TO MWL AT 00Z. MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN FROM SOUTHEAST TX NWD TO THE OZARKS
BENEATH RELATIVELY STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 850MB. WARM NOSE
DEFINING THE CAPPING LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO
EAST AS BOTH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MESOSCALE FRONTAL LIFT SPREAD
EAST THIS EVENING. TSTM INITIATION NEAR WAS NOW OCCURRING OVER ERN
OK/NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR SWWD TOWARD NERN
TX...AND NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

EVENING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DEPICT 25-45KT LOW LEVEL
SLY FLOW VEERING TO WSWLY AND INCREASING TO 40-50KT THROUGH THE MID
LEVELS. SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 30-50KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENCE. COUPLED WITH
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM AR ENEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

GIVEN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF DEEPENING FRONTAL
CIRCULATION...AND FOCUSED LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...INITIAL
DISCRETE STORMS FROM AR SWWD SHOULD MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND
SPREAD EAST TO THE MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. IF INITIAL CELLS
CAN REMAIN DISCRETE AND OVERCOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION...A
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY LINEAR AND
MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

..CARBIN.. 01/13/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM