[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
MCB 30 SE POE 10 ESE UTS 35 SSE PRX 35 NNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX
30 NE JBR 20 N UOX 25 SW PIB 15 SW MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LBX 60 S CLL 10
WNW CLL 15 SW CRS GYI GMJ 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW LEX 60 SW LEX
25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB GPT 65 S HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING TROUGH CROSSING CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AM PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY BY FRI AM. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW SWRN KS ATTM MOVES TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY END OF FORECAST
PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES SEWD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION
FROM THE KS LOW INTO NRN NM REACHING LOWER MS VALLEY 12Z FRI.

WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN STATES AS FAR E AS GA
AND RAPIDLY RETURNING GULF MOISTURE UNDERWAY SRN AND ERN TX...AIR
MASS POTENTIALLY COULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CINH AND THE MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SLOWING THE SURFACE HEATING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER
WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING UPWARD
MOTION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BY THIS EVENING.

AS 60F DEWPOINTS SPREADS THRU ERN TX INTO LA...MLCAPES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOVE 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL/STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD THAT WILL BE MOVING SEWD
ACROSS SERN OK INTO N TX DURING THE EVENING. INITIAL THREAT WOULD
LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE OVERNIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINES/BOWS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

WITH THE STRONG UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THE CAP
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT ERN TX INTO LA. 
40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET BY LATE TONIGHT LOWER MS VALLEY COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 80PLUS KT 500 WIND MAX WILL PROVIDE SHEAR
PROFILES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  ANY
STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FORCED ACTIVITY WITH THE
COLD FRONT WOULD HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT. THIS
ACCOUNTS FOR THE INCREASE AND SWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TORNADO
PROBABILITIES IN THIS FORECAST.  STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR
EAST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT BOTH 12Z NAM
AND GFS INDICATE POTENTIALLY MLCAPES AT LEAST TO 500 J/KG INTO SWRN
MS BY 12Z FRI.

..HALES.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM