[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121950
SWODY1
SPC AC 121948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ASD
LCH UTS CRS DUA FYV VIH BLV 30 SE MVN MKL UOX GWO JAN PIB ASD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE CRP 35 N NIR
AUS FTW ADM GMJ PIA SBN 35 NE FWA DAY CKV TUP MEI 30 NNW MOB 70 SSE
MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VLY....

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
SLOW MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES...AND A RETURN FLOW IS NOW DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER
IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP...EVEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT TONGUE OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS PRESENT OVER
MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  THIS WILL CONTINUING ADVECTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DAYTIME HEATING...AND PERHAPS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
IMPULSE...APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING ONGOING SHOWERY/LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU HAS
INHIBITED DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO
REMAIN THE CASE UNTIL MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF
DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH.

INITIATION OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY AROUND 13/01-03Z...NEAR
PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LARGE HAIL THREAT IN MOST DEVELOPING STORMS...WHICH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME BASED INCREASINGLY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...FROM PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS SLOWLY
CLIMB THROUGH THE NIGHT.  BETTER INFLUX OF MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO
OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

..KERR.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM