[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121244
SWODY1
SPC AC 121242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
HEZ 25 SE IER 45 ENE LFK 35 NNW GGG 15 WNW DEQ 25 WSW RUE 20 NNW BVX
30 NE JBR 25 E MEM 25 SW GWO 35 NNW HEZ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU
10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 10 SW FSM 30 N FAM 20 NNW BMG 40 NNW
LEX 60 SW LEX 25 NNE HSV 20 WNW SEM 25 N MOB 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER UT/CO WILL AMPLIFY AND DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM EASTERN TX/OK ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  GULF
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THIS REGION...WITH 50S DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL AR SOUTHWARD BY 00Z.  

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING  FROM WESTERN AR INTO NORTHEAST TX AS
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY INITIALLY
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGER CELLS AFTER DARK OVER PARTS OF AR. LINEAR NATURE OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN LA INTO WESTERN MS.

..HART.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM