[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120514
SWODY1
SPC AC 120513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
MCB 40 N LFT 30 WNW LCH 25 SSW LFK 20 NE TYR 35 E DEQ 30 WSW BVX 25
SW POF 20 NNE DYR 20 SE MKL 20 NNE TUP 30 NNW MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE BPT 25 NW HOU
10 WNW CLL 15 SW CRS 25 WSW PRX 20 SSE FSM 35 W STL 30 WNW MIE 20
SSW DAY 35 WNW LOZ 10 N CHA 20 NE 0A8 60 W GZH 30 SE ASD 65 S HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH A SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING
BAJA TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CNTRL
U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM
EVOLVES...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH TODAY...BEFORE SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING...AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

...ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR NNEWD FROM THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
TRANSPORTS 55-60F DEWPOINTS TO NWRN LA AND SWRN AR BY THIS EVENING.
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL BE
RESTRICTED THROUGH THE DAY BY LIMITED FORCING AND STRONG CAP. AFTER
DARK...STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CAPPING LAYER AND SHOULD LEAD
TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN NARROW WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY FROM TXK NEWD TO BOOTHEEL OF MO. BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER AND BE
FURTHER UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WITH LAPSE RATES
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER APPROACHING 8 C/KM DUE TO STRONG COOLING
ALOFT...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.

STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS
ORIENTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MS RIVER
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. STORMS/UPDRAFTS ALONG THE SRN END OF THE LINE
MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT BECOMING NEAR SURFACE-BASED GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO WARMER AIR MASS AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES EVOLVING WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE...PERHAPS FROM SRN AR/NRN LA TO WRN MS...WOULD HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

..CARBIN.. 01/12/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM