[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091924
SWODY1
SPC AC 091921

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
UTS CLL CRS PRX HOT PBF LLQ MLU 30 SE UTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE BRO SAT ACT DUA
FLP ARG BNA CSV RMG 15 SSE ANB SEM PIB 10 SSW BTR 60 S 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION....

MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH
EAST TEXAS IS WARMING THROUGH THE 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU IS PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL CAP.

INHIBITION STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  IMPULSE
IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT/DRY LINE TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM
LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS FORCING SPREADS THROUGH
MOIST AXIS.  WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...NOW LIFTING
INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...COULD ENHANCE FORCING IN
WARM SECTOR OF LOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TOWARD 10/03-06Z.  

BASED NEAR SURFACE...POSSIBLY JUST ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION LAYER...WITH CAPE FOR MOIST PARCELS UP TO 1000 J/KG...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AS A MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.  

LARGE HAIL SEEMS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL IN STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT A VERY ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR TWO COULD OCCUR IN INITIAL
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET LATER THIS EVENING...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

..KERR.. 01/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM