[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 091607
SWODY1
SPC AC 091605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE
LFK 30 NW LFK TYR 30 SW DEQ 35 SW HOT 40 SW PBF 25 NW MLU 40 NE IER
50 ENE LFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 45 ESE COT 25 ESE
ACT 25 SSE DUA 20 SW RKR 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 40 ENE JAN 20
NNE HEZ 40 ESE POE 60 S LCH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NERN TX...SWRN
AR AND NRN LA...

...ARKLATEX...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH SRN CO/NERN NM CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD AND
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL UNDERGO SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
CROSSES OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
ZONE STRETCHES FROM TN VLY WSWWD ACROSS SRN AR AND THEN THRU THE DFW
AREA TO SRN NM.  PORTION OF FRONT E OF DFW WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS
A SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NERN TX IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM.

20-25KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY FLOW ACROSS TX AHEAD OF FRONT IS RETURNING A
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 60F INLAND
ACROSS SERN TX/LA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX AND ALONG WITH
GOOD SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW
NERN TX WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO SRN AR.  LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 30-40KT WHICH COUPLED WITH THE 60-70KT
MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVING EWD ALG N TX/SRN OK BORDER WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.

IT NOW APPEARS LIKE MLCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP IN WARM
SECTOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARKLATEX REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SHEAR AND UPWARD MOTION WITH APPROACHING TROUGH THERE IS A
SUFFICIENT THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL TO UPGRADE THIS AREA TO A
SLIGHT RISK.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED.

..HALES.. 01/09/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM