[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021956
SWODY1
SPC AC 021954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
PNS 35 E TOI 30 ESE ANB 30 WNW GAD 15 ENE MSL 55 WSW BNA 30 SE OWB
15 SW BMG 20 WSW LAF 40 NE LAF 30 N CMH 25 NW PKB 15 NNE CRW 35 WSW
BKW 15 NNW HSS 40 W AVL 30 NNW AND 15 SE SPA 35 ENE CLT 30 E GSO 30
NW RWI 35 ENE RWI 50 NE EWN 65 SSW HSE ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 45 WSW
PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10
ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45
NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 65 SSW PNS 20 S MGM 40 E 0A8 45 SSW MSL
50 NE MKL 40 ENE PAH MVN 15 E ALN 30 ENE UIN 40 ESE DBQ 30 SE OSH 35
WNW MBS 30 NE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE
MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NRN
FL...

...OH/TN VALLEY...

MATURING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS IND/KY AHEAD OF WELL
DEFINED UPPER VORT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
SPREADING EAST AT ROUGHLY 30KT WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...AND A FEW PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS MOSTLY ACROSS KY. 
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEMS TO REFLECT AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IND...AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE PROCESSES
TO SUPPORT A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH
THIS BAND OF CONVECTION HAS IT SPREADS TOWARD SWRN OH/CNTRL KY.

SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO MIDDLE TN IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN
THE VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.

...SERN U.S...

EARLY MORNING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE PROGRESSED
ACROSS ALL BUT SRN GA/NRN FL...TAKING ON AN E-W ORIENTATION AS FLOW
DEEPENS FROM THE WEST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESO ANALYSIS
FIELDS SEEM TO SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WEDGED IN ACROSS
GA/SC. CONVECTIVE THERMALS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIR
IDENTITY WITHIN STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE AL/GA
BORDER...MOST LIKELY DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE/ASCENT.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ASCENT ATOP COOLER GA
AIRMASS LATER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER UPDRAFTS WILL UTILIZE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AIRMASS IN A FASHION NECESSARY FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ACROSS NRN FL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
LONGER LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...CA...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS CENTER OF UPPER CIRCULATION APPROACHES THE
COAST. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEY REGION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL IS THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM