[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 030059
SWODY1
SPC AC 030058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
SAV 35 ESE VDI 15 W VDI 40 ESE MCN 50 NE MCN 40 WNW AGS 15 W CAE 35
ESE ILM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
TYS 30 NE TYS 45 SSE JKL 40 S HTS 20 NE HTS 30 SSW PKB 35 NE CRW 30
NNE BKW BLF 35 ESE TRI 10 WNW AVL 35 ESE TYS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DAB 30 SW SRQ
...CONT... 10 SW AAF 10 E MGR 45 ENE ABY 30 SSE MCN 30 NNW MCN 45 N
ATL 40 NE CHA 45 SSW LOZ 30 NW JKL 30 NE LUK 35 ENE MIE 10 S AZO 10
NNW GRR 10 W MBS 50 SE BAX ...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO
15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE TRM 35 SW DAG
30 NW PMD 15 NW BFL 25 SSE FAT 40 NE FAT 25 N BIH 50 SSW P68 30 SW
ENV 20 NNE DPG 25 W PUC 25 WNW U17 15 S GCN 40 SE IGM 35 SW EED 50
NNE TRM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN GA AND
SC...

...ERN GA...SC AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IS ONGOING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN
GA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 60
TO 70 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NEARLY
TO THE SC-GA STATE-LINE. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COMBINATION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING
AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THIS EVENING IN SRN SC INCREASE INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR AS
THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AFFECTS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...STRONG
0-1 KM SHEAR COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS TRACKS EWD ACROSS FAR ERN GA INTO SRN
SC. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE LINE
SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS
THE LINE APPROACHES THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. THE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING.

FURTHER NORTH IN THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IS ONGOING IN ERN KY AND ERN TN. THE STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ARE IN A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
WEAKENING SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING...LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
THAT ARE ONGOING. THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DECREASING SHEAR
VALUES SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...INTERMOUTAIN WEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CNTRL CA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS ARE
ONGOING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CA AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
INITIATE ACROSS SRN NV...NW AZ AND SW UT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 01/03/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM