[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021652
SWODY1
SPC AC 021650

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
PFN 20 ENE CEW TOI 10 W AUO 35 WNW MCN 25 WNW AGS 25 NE CAE FLO 40
SW CRE 20 N CTY 55 SSE TLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
SGJ 30 WSW PIE ...CONT... 30 WSW BVE 50 ESE MEI 30 NNW TCL 35 ESE
MEM 20 E PAH 10 S MTO 30 NE PIA 30 WSW FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E
CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 20 SW AVL 25 W GSP 15 SE SPA 35 E HKY 15
ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY
...CONT... 60 S HUM 30 SE MEI 20 SSE CBM 10 NW UOX 25 WSW PAH 40 NE
VIH 10 ENE UIN 20 ENE MLI 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC
...CONT... 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25
SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE
MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN FL
PANHANDLE...SERN AL...GA...SRN/ERN SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN FL NWWD TO
SRN INDIANA/SRN OH/ERN IL...AND MUCH OF CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES PRIMARY TROUGHS INITIALLY
OFFSHORE CA AND OVER MS VALLEY.  PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER NRN MO -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY...REACHING VICINITY TN/VA BORDER BY 3/12Z. 
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER WRN IL -- WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS SRN OH AND WEAKEN AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OVER
TIDEWATER REGION OF VA/NC.  MEANWHILE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EWD ACROSS TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD.  TROUGH OFFSHORE CA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA.  OTHERWISE SEE GEOGRAPHIC
SECTIONS BELOW FOR PERTINENT SFC FEATURES.

...SERN CONUS...
REF WW 5 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFORMATION
REGARDING BAND OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS CURRENTLY FROM SWRN GA ACROSS FL
PANHANDLE.

SFC...925 AND 850 MB ANALYSES SHOW MARKED ZONE OF RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE SFC AIR OVER SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS NEWD...WRN
BOUNDARY OF WHICH IS RETREATING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NERN AL/NWRN GA.
 SERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD DRIFT NWD OVER ERN GA AND SRN SC
AHEAD OF MAIN ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND. WAA AND DIABATIC HEATING
WILL AID NEWD EROSION OF COLD AIR WEDGE OVER GA AND EVENTUALLY
SC...POSSIBLY INTO SRN/WRN NC THIS EVENING.  TORNADO AND WIND
POTENTIAL WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF
ASSOCIATED SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION...HENCE DECREASE IN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES NEWD ACROSS REGION.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND BOW POTENTIAL
BOTH IN EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND AND IN DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
FARTHER W...ALTHOUGH VEERING WIND PROFILE RESULT IN STRAIGHTER
HODOGRAPHS AND SMALLER PROJECTED SRH BETWEEN EXISTING CONVECTIVE
BAND AND SFC COLD FRONT.  DEEP-LAYER SHEARS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS WITH TIME THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APCHS...AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN.  SHEAR/VORTICITY ALSO WILL BE ENHANCED INVOF RETREATING
WEDGE/FRONT...FURTHER AIDING TORNADO POTENTIAL ON MESOSCALE.  GIVEN
SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY
PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO.

...OH VALLEY REGION...
SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM NERN AL NNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY TO
SWRN AL...INTERSECTING SQUALL LINE INVOF SRN PORTION IL/INDIANA
BORDER.  EXPECT WARM FRONT TO RETREAT ENEWD ACROSS TN/KY AND SRN
INDIANA THROUGH AFTERNOON.  RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL FORCING SHOULD CONTINUE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF AFTERNOON.  REF SPC WWS 4 AND 6...AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS -- FOR NEAR-TERM INFO.

NEAR-FRONTAL TSTM BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERTAKE EWD MOVING WARM
FRONT OVER OH VALLEY THROUGH 00Z...RESULTING IN SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY DECREASING WITH TIME AND FROM N-S IN INFLOW LAYER. 
MEANWHILE BAND WILL BACKBUILD SWD INTO TN VALLEY REGION...RESULTING
IN SEWD NET SHIFT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM ONGOING WW AREAS TOWARD
CENTRAL PORTIONS KY/TN.  BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH SLGT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

...CENTRAL/SRN CA...
PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THIS REGION AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH APCHS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APCH OF TROUGH ALOFT...WHILE SFC FLOW 
BACKS ACROSS CENTRAL VALLEY BECAUSE OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  MAIN
CAVEAT WILL BE TIMING/EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION BEHIND ONGOING
PRECIP PLUME...DURING ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z TIME FRAME.  MESOSCALE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR 20Z
OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM