[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021238
SWODY1
SPC AC 021237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
PNS 30 NW PNS 25 NNE GZH 20 WNW AUO 30 S ATL 45 ESE AHN 35 NNE CAE
FLO 35 WSW CRE 30 SSE AYS 65 ESE AAF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
BVE 50 ESE MEI 15 NW TCL 10 SSW MEM 30 W POF 25 E UIN 15 WNW PIA 25
W FWA 30 N CMH 10 N PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25
W GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW
HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 35 SE NFL 40 SW ELY 40 NW MLF 40 ESE
MLF 25 NW PGA 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10
ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50 ESE SBY ...CONT... 45
NNE MLB 50 W FMY ...CONT... 60 S HUM 20 ESE MEI 25 SW CBM 45 WSW MEM
15 ENE UNO 25 N COU 25 SW OTM 20 SSW ALO 35 S LSE 10 WSW MTW 35 WNW
MBS 30 NE MTC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN GULF COAST TO ERN
SC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE MS/OH/TN RIVER
VALLEYS ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO ERN NC...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AHEAD OF POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW
MOVING ACROSS MO/AR/LA.  GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS EVIDENT EAST OF THE
LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND WEST OF THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH LOWER
60+ F SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE. SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO
NERN MO WILL TRACK EWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN IND BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND
LIFTING NWD NORTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY.  FATHER SOUTH...WEDGE
FRONT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM CENTRAL SC INTO CENTRAL GA...AIDED
BY EXTENSIVE AREA OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS INTO SRN GA.  SECONDARY WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEFINING LEADING EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS E-W ACROSS SRN
GA INTO SERN/CENTRAL AL.

...MID SOUTH ACROSS THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES AT 12Z ALONG THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF STRONG AND DEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND SHIFT
STEADILY EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DESPITE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES UNDER SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...EFFECTIVE
SHEAR REMAINS AOA 40 KT ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOW ECHOES...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO
POTENTIAL GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN BACKED SURFACE WIND
FIELDS AHEAD OF NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL IL/IND AND SWRN OH
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY BUILDING SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL KY AND TN
BY THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS...
COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...DUE TO EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA
REGIME OVER MUCH OF GA.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP ENOUGH
FOR MODEST ELEVATED CAPE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
WITH STRONGER CORES THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SRN GA AND THEN EXTENDING NWWD
INTO CENTRAL AL.  AS STRONG SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DEEP ASCENT/HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY WARM FRONT MAY
BECOME ESTABLISHED NEARER CURRENT WEDGE FRONT INTO CENTRAL GA/SC
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD ALLOW A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL AND
CENTRAL GA/SC. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THIS
ENTIRE REGION AS 90 KT H5 JET DIGS ACROSS MS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NOSES ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. 

12Z TLH SOUNDING SUGGESTS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD GREATLY
INCREASE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING
WITH WEAK INHIBITION...MODERATE MLCAPE...AND VERY STRONG LOW/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.  DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE PRIMARY WARM FRONT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS. STORM-MOTION VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN STRONG ELY COMPONENT AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS STORMS MOVE ALONG EXPECTED E-W SURFACE
FRONT. SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING TORNADOES...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
ATLANTIC MOISTURE RETURNS.

..EVANS.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM