[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020614
SWODY1
SPC AC 020613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
PNS 20 WNW SEM 20 N HSV 20 ENE BNA 30 E BWG 25 SW LEX 25 ESE LEX 15
WNW JKL 15 SSW JKL 45 SSE LOZ 25 NNE TYS 15 SW TYS 40 E CHA 30 N ATL
35 SSW AHN 40 SSE AHN 40 SE AHN 40 N AGS 35 SE CLT 35 SW SOP 35 NNE
FLO 20 ENE FLO CHS 25 NNE SSI 20 NNE CTY 45 WSW CTY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
BVE 40 NE BVE 35 E PIB 30 SSW CBM 20 ENE MKL 20 NW EVV 20 W IND 40
ENE MIE 15 NNE CMH PKB 35 E CRW 15 WNW BLF 15 NNW AVL 25 SW AVL 25 W
GSP SPA 35 E HKY 15 ENE DAN 20 NE AVC 40 WSW ORF 30 NW HSE 50 SSW
HSE ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 30 WSW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CLM 35 SSW OLM
50 S EUG 35 ESE MHS 40 NW RNO 20 N NFL 40 NNW P68 30 WNW U24 50 SE
U24 45 NW U17 40 ENE GCN 25 N PRC 35 N BLH 15 SE RAL 35 SSW OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S HUM 15 ESE JAN
10 NNE MEM 25 SSE POF 40 ENE VIH 25 N COU 20 NNW CDJ 10 SW SDA 35 E
OLU 20 W SUX 15 S OTG MKT 30 NNE VOK 35 WNW MBS 30 NE MTC ...CONT...
25 NW ERI 20 N DUJ 10 ENE AOO 15 ESE HGR 20 ESE BWI 25 SSW DOV 50
ESE SBY ...CONT... 45 NNE MLB 50 W FMY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL...WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY GRAPHICS

...AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE/TN AND OH VALLEYS/CAROLINAS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN KS ACROSS OK INTO EAST TX. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING...A 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH
LOW TO MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER.
AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT MID-LEVEL JET WILL NOSE NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SEVERAL MCS
CLUSTERS DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING EWD FROM THE OH RIVER SWD TO ERN MS
AND AL. STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES BY DAYBREAK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MIDDLE TN AND ERN AL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING
SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE MOIST AXIS AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ERN GULF COAST STATES SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED TORNADO
THREAT AS AN MCS DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AL...SWRN AND CNTRL GA AND ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...INSTABILITY AND LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE THE
STRONGEST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD DURING THE DAY...NAM AND GFS
FORECASTS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE LINE FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
INTO CNTRL GA AND SE AL. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DEEP LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ENHANCED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SC...GA AND NRN FL. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS...GA AND FL DURING THE EVENING GRADUALLY ALLOWING
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC.

...PACIFIC COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ORGANIZE AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST
TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MID-DAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INLAND WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOCUSING EWD
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE IN CA...NV
AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM