[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 E
BVE HUM 30 NW MSY 15 W MEI 35 WSW CBM 25 NNE MEM 30 S FAM 25 E VIH
20 WSW JEF 35 NW COU 30 ESE IRK 25 NE UIN 35 ENE BMI LAF 20 E IND 35
N SDF 45 E BWG 25 NNW CHA 15 NE RMG 15 ESE ATL 15 E MCN 50 WSW VDI
25 W AYS 35 ESE VLD 20 N CTY 25 WSW CTY 65 SW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR
45 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40
SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S LCH 35 N LFT 50
NNE HEZ 55 WSW MEM 30 W UNO 40 NNW SGF 25 SSE OJC 35 NE STJ 25 SW
OXV 20 WSW CID 30 WSW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25
ESE TRI 20 SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE NCNTRL GULF COAST
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY BEING ENHANCED BY
MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE NOW PASSING OVER SERN LA. ASCENT ACROSS THIS
REGION CURRENTLY APPEARS DISTINCT FROM THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
500-1000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN
WEST-TO-EAST BAND FROM SRN LA/MS ACROSS AL/SRN GA AND NRN FL.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT...AND RELATIVELY LIMITED INHIBITION
COULD LEAD TO A FEW ROTATING STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH A CHANCE OF
SEVERE HAIL/WIND. SEE LATEST SWOMCD NUMBER 0003 FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

...LOWER OH VALLEY/MIDWEST TO TN VALLEY LATE...
POWERFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 80-90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS EAST TO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AFTER DARK. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL OVERSPREAD LOW LEVEL MOIST
AXIS FROM MIDDLE TN TO THE MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. STORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...AND EMBEDDED WITHIN EVOLVING COMMA-HEAD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

WIND/TORNADO THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MORE CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GREATER CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR APPEARS TO
BE IN VICINITY OF RETREATING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM