[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011636
SWODY1
SPC AC 011634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S
HUM 30 NNW MSY 30 E JAN 40 WSW UOX 60 NE PBF 15 N BVX 40 ESE TBN 30
WNW STL DEC 20 W IND 55 W LUK 35 SE SDF 35 NNE CSV 30 N ATL 15 WNW
MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 45 SE AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 30 NW AGR
40 WSW APF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 45 N HEZ 30
ESE RUE 15 NE HRO 20 NE SZL 40 ENE OTM 20 NNE DBQ 15 ENE MSN 40 W
MKG 30 SW LAN 40 W CLE 20 NE PKB 25 SE CRW 45 ENE TRI 30 SW CLT 30
SSE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40
SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 40 WSW MER 40 WSW BFL 30 S OXR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE GULF
COAST TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY....

...N CENTRAL/NE GULF COAST TODAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ENEWD
OVER SRN LA.  THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER SE LA/MS/AL TODAY. 
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING NWD/INLAND OVER LA...SRN
MS/AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F
ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.  EXPECT DESTABILIZATION INLAND TODAY WITH LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS AND NWD MOISTURE ADVECTION. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND
IN ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE BY ROUGHLY MIDDAY FROM SE LA TO SRN
AL...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EWD.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. 

...PORTIONS OF MID MS/LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE MS VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SW KS TO NE MO.  A RELATIVELY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME AND A SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGEST THAT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS UNLIKELY ALONG THE
DEVELOPING DRYLINE ACROSS ERN TX/WRN AR THROUGH THIS EVENING. 
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT NEAR AND
E OF THE MS RIVER AND WITHIN THE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
THAT WILL SPREAD NWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 50
KT LLJ.  STRONG L0W-MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DESPITE A SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RICH MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. 

...PAC COAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NEWD/INLAND OVER THE NW CA/ORE/WA COASTS TODAY.  SUBSTANTIAL
LIGHTNING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
JUST OFF THE NW CA/SW ORE COASTS...IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION
WILL WEAKEN WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE RELATIVELY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
MASS THAT IS BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE COAST BY SELY/OFFSHORE FLOW.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA COAST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN THE TSTM THREAT EARLY MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
NEAR 135 W APPROACHES THE COAST.

..THOMPSON.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM