[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020101
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S
BVE 30 ESE PIB 20 NW MEI 20 SE UOX 25 NNW MEM 20 ENE UNO 15 W VIH 40
SSW UIN 20 SSE BMI 30 WNW IND 50 SE IND 10 N LEX 30 NW TYS 30 SSE
ATL 15 W MGR 55 SSE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 20 NW PDX 40
SW MFR 45 E EKA 25 NE UKI 20 ENE SFO 40 ESE MRY 20 SSW VBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE MLB 10 ESE AGR
45 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW HUM 20 SSE MCB
20 W JAN 30 NNE GLH 45 ENE LIT 30 NNE HRO 10 E MKC 35 WNW CDJ 15 NE
OXV 30 SW DBQ 40 E RAC 50 WNW CLE 25 W HLG 45 ENE CRW 25 ESE TRI 20
SW HKY 25 N FLO 15 NE CRE 35 ESE CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...GULF COAST...
A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE. THE DEVELOPING MCS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING SWRN AL EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. THE
ACTIVITY IS JUST NORTH OF A 55 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHOWN ON
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE STRONG SHEAR IS CONFIRMED BY
REGIONAL 88D VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO
50 KTS. THIS COMBINED WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP A SUPERCELL THREAT GOING
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING WITH A ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADO THREAT. AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS SRN GA
LATE THIS EVENING...A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY TO THE EAST SHOULD
ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL CONTINUE A
QUICK EWD PROGRESSION INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN
80 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH THE REGION CAUSING A
FOCUSED BAND OF INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A
FEW STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN WRN MO AND THESE MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT IN THIS REGION.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SRN IL SWD ALONG THE MS
RIVER VALLEY. SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING
ACROSS THE REGION AT 09Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING TO 60 KT WITH SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.

...WEST COAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING IN THE ERN
PACIFIC...ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE COAST OF WA AND ORE. THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT NWD AS ANOTHER
LARGER TROUGH DEVELOPS AND APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST. STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF
CA...ORE AND WA. INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/02/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM