[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011239
SWODY1
SPC AC 011237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
HUM 25 E BTR 35 W MEI 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF 25
W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 55 WSW VDI 15 NNE VLD 35 E
AAF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 ENE PDX
25 E MHS MER BFL 50 S LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE OCF
45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 SSE 7R4 40 N HEZ 30 WNW CGI 10 NE UIN 25
WNW JVL 15 ENE DTW ...CONT... 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE 45 NNW SSU 25 S
BLF CLT 20 SSW CRE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND INTO THE TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SRN STREAM IMPULSE...WELL DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER THE TX COAST...WILL CONTINUE EJECTING ENEWD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  SURFACE DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S OFFSHORE ATTM...AND MODELS LIFT UPPER
60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO SERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL
PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT CERTAIN HOW FAR NWD COASTAL
BOUNDARY/TRUE MARINE LAYER WILL DEVELOP TODAY...THOUGH 09Z RUC
DEPICTS THIS BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN GA WNWWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL MS AT
21Z.  THEREFORE...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE SHOULD BECOME COLLOCATED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO AT
LEAST SERN LA...FAR SRN MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z...AND
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH THE EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO
STRUCTURES UNDER 40-50 KT WLY MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
STREAM SYSTEM. THEREFORE...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ALLOWS STORMS TO ROOT INTO VERY MOIST...MARINE AIR
MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF COASTAL FRONT.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/SUPERCELL THREAT MAY
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THIS AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY.  LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND ANY NIGHTTIME STORMS WILL POSE AT LEAST A
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND TORNADOES.

...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
DEEP MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.  GULF MOISTURE
RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LEADING EDGE OF
60F ISODROSOTHERM OVER ERN TX/SRN AR/CENTRAL MS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION NWD
INTO MUCH OF THE MID MS/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS STRONG/DEEP
ASCENT EJECTS ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER A LARGE AREA
WITHIN MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MUCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.  IN ADDITION...
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 45-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FROM STRONGER
STORMS.  AS SURFACE THETA-E AND DEEP ASCENT INCREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...STORMS MAY ROOT NEARER THE SURFACE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREATS.

..EVANS.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM