[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 010558
SWODY1
SPC AC 010556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
GZH 30 SSE MEI 40 SW CBM 15 SSW MKL 25 ENE PAH 25 NNE EVV 25 NNW SDF
25 W LEX 35 NNE CSV 35 NNE ATL 15 WNW MCN 20 NNW ABY 20 WSW DHN 30
WSW GZH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLM 25 N SLE 10
W MHS 35 E SJC 35 NE SBA 50 S LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ERI 20 NW LBE
45 NNW SSU 25 S BLF 40 N CAE 55 ESE SAV ...CONT... 30 ESE SGJ 35 SSE
OCF 45 WSW PIE ...CONT... 50 S BVE 40 W JAN 25 SSW POF 15 SSE SPI 45
NE MKE 20 SSW HTL 40 NE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF
COAST...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...GULF COAST/TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN US WILL
AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. IN RESPONSE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION/SFC HEATING SHOULD ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN LA...SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO SCNTRL AL AND SWRN GA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO MID 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A FEW SUPERCELLS OR MULTICELL
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR PEAK
HEATING.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS
APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT FROM NE MS ACROSS WRN TN IN
NRN AL. INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STRONG SHEAR AS A MID-LEVEL JET BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS WILL
HAVE AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS QUICKLY MOVE NEWD
ACROSS CNTRL TN AND NRN AL. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN WRN KY AND SRN
IND AS THE 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THAT REGION AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER...THE STRONG ASCENT
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES EXCEEDING 70 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ENEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

...PACIFIC COAST...
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD INTO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF CA...ORE AND WA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 01/01/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM