[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251253
SWODY1
SPC AC 251252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
GULF STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST AND MOVE EWD
ACROSS N FL AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE NRN
STREAM TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT...IN THE
WAKE OF THE SRN STREAM WAVE.

...NRN GULF COAST TODAY...
A BROAD AREA OF RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND  NE TX...WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS FORMING ACROSS
LA/MS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TODAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SLY/SWLY FEED OF MOISTURE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD NWD
INTO SE LA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF ASCENT OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE.  STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MAY POSE A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT LATER TODAY.

...E CENTRAL FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS N FL AND L0W-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
BECOME MORE SLY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND N FL.  A N-S CONFLUENCE BAND IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP INVOF THE CENTRAL AND NE FL COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EARLY STAGES OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NE FL
COAST. AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE MID-UPPER 60S
FROM S TO N BY AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED /SBCAPE AOA 500 J/KG/.  DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...FORECAST WIND PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE RISK OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG E CENTRAL FL COAST.

..THOMPSON.. 02/25/2006