[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250541
SWODY1
SPC AC 250539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF COAST...

SRN ROCKIES UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GULF
STATES SATURDAY...NEARING THE GA/FL COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN 100 MI OF THE
GULF COAST WHILE ONLY A WEAK SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...THEN OFF THE GA/SC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED RETURN OF QUALITY
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND.  IT APPEARS UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS
WILL ADVECT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SPREADING
DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF SURGING FRONTAL
ZONE LATE.  WITH WLY FLOW DEEPENING AND WEAK WARM SECTOR
CONVERGENCE...IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
UPDRAFT IDENTITY WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS DOES MANAGE TO SPREAD
INLAND.  MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THAT
REGION ALONG/NORTH OF E-W WIND SHIFT.  AS A RESULT...THE PROSPECT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED...MAINLY
DUE TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE
TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN LA EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD PRODUCE A LOCAL
WIND GUST OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG THE GULF COAST.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2006