[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 250044
SWODY1
SPC AC 250042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST TX/SRN NM...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AND MOVED ACROSS THE
MEXICAN/TX BORDER...JUST SE OF ELP.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
WITHIN A FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATE REGIME WHERE CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY IS ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG SFC-BASED CAPE.  EPZ
SOUNDING WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES AS FLOW VEERS NICELY WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF EJECTING JET MAX.  AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES WEST TX IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE BIG BEND REGION INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION. 
EWD EXTENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY STEEP ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE SCALE FORCING THAT WILL INCREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  OTHERWISE...THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS BEFORE SFC-BASED
ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...FUELED BY WEAKER
INSTABILITY AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM.

..DARROW.. 02/25/2006